Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels : Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices /
Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into c...
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| Corporate Author: | |
| Other Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2010
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| Series: | IMF Working Papers ;
Working Paper No. 10/186 IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2010/186 IMF eLibrary |
| Subjects: |
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| 050 | 4 | |a HD9560.4 |b .T46 2010 | |
| 100 | 1 | |a Pant, Malika | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels : |b Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices / |c Malika Pant, Martin Mühleisen, Alun Thomas |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, D.C. : |b International Monetary Fund, |c 2010 | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (17 pages) | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (28 p.) | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 347 | |a text file |2 rdaft | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a IMF Working Papers ; |v Working Paper No. 10/186 | |
| 490 | 1 | |a IMF Working Papers | |
| 500 | |a At head of title: Strategy, Policy, and Review Department | ||
| 500 | |a Part of the IMF eLibrary collection | ||
| 500 | |a "August 2010." | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (p. 26-28) | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; 1. Commodity Investments; II. Modeling Oil Prices; 2. Oil Prices: Role of Fundamentals and Speculation; 3. Oil Prices: Forecasts; 4. Oil Prices: Demand and Supply Determinants; III. A Multivariate Model; 1. Stationarity Tests; 2. Regression Estimates: Reduced Form; IV. Estimating a Supply-Demand Model; 3. Regression Estimates: Demand and Supply Determinants; V. Conclusion; References; Footnotes | |
| 506 | |a Restricted for use by site license | ||
| 506 | |a Restricted for use by site license. | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into commodity markets. This paper attempts to infer the strength of these competing hypotheses, using a simultaneous equation model that enables us to undertake a separate analysis of supply and demand factors. The model broadly captures both the surge and subsequent fall in prices, with a particularly strong impact of demand factors. The model captures a strong effect of a measure for global liquidity but does not find support for a speculative motive | |
| 588 | |a Description based on print version record | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Petroleum products |x Prices |x Econometric models | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Petroleum products |x Prices | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Aggregate demand | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Business Fluctuations | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Commodity exchanges | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Commodity markets | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Commodity prices | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Crude oil market | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Crude oil price | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Crude oil prices | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Crude oil production | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Crude oil | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Cycles | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Demand and Supply | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Econometric analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Exporting countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Forecasting and Simulation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gas prices | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gas supply | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Geological conditions | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Import demand | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Million barrels per day | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Million barrels | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Model Construction and Estimation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Natural gas | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil and gas | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil consumption | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil demand | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil futures | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil import | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil imports | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil market | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil markets | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil prices | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil production | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Oil supply | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Opec countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Opec | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Output growth | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Price analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Time-Series Models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Trade volumes | |
| 650 | 4 | |a World oil production | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Asset and liability management |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Commodities |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Consumption |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Economics |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Emerging and frontier financial markets |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Energy: Demand and Supply |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Energy: General |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Finance |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Finance: General |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Financial markets |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Financial services industry |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a International finance |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a International liquidity |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Investment & securities |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Investment Decisions |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Investments: Energy |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Macroeconomics |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Macroeconomics: Consumption |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a National accounts |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Oil prices |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Oil |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Petroleum industry and trade |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Portfolio Choice |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Prices |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Saving |2 imf | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Wealth |2 imf | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Saint Lucia | |
| 651 | 7 | |a United States |2 imf | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mühleisen, Martin | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mühleisen, Martin | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Pant, Malika | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Thomas, Alun H |q (Alun Huw) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Thomas, Alun | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund |b Strategy, Policy, and Review Dept. | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |a Print Version: |z 9781455202201 |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print Version: |a Pant, Malika |t Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels: Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices |d Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010. |z 9781455280827 |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF Working Papers ; |v Working Paper No. 10/186 | |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; |v No. 2010/186 | |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF eLibrary | |
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